Intrade
The above is a prediction of tomorrow's national election. "Prediction Markets" tend to be a bit more accurate than polls - prediction markets have real money backing them (people can lose or gain dollars based on the outcomes) and I feel that real money removes biases more than even carefully conducted polls.
As of today, Intrade has Obama 364 v McCain 174 Electoral votes.
Update: An anoynmous commentor asks if prediction markets aren't just "polls for technocrats". That is a good question. Prediction markets (Wikipedia) are not 100% accurate, but historical evidence shows that they are more accurate than "normal" polling. In the long run, markets are 74% closer to the actual result than polling. But they are not perfect. Being a market, financial shenanigans can and do occur - there is evidence that in the 2008 Presidential Market, a trader is using Intrade to hedge bets placed on BetFair and contracts taken on the Iowa Markets.
Oh, and I don't think that Prediction Markets are restricted to "technocrats". I would guess that the users of these markets are closer to gamblers and commodities traders.
November 03, 2008 by Brent Schneeman
Posted in General | 1 Comments »
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Isn't this still a biased "poll" of the technocrats?
Posted by 216.113.168.147 on November 03, 2008 at 11:19 AM CST #