Election Night Dumb*sses, Redux
OK, Maybe I was a bit early in my rant. Now, 10 minutes after my last post, at 10PM CST, they are saying that Obama is the winner. Score one for mathematics.
November 04, 2008 by Brent Schneeman
Posted in General | 0 Comments »
Intrade
The above is a prediction of tomorrow's national election. "Prediction Markets" tend to be a bit more accurate than polls - prediction markets have real money backing them (people can lose or gain dollars based on the outcomes) and I feel that real money removes biases more than even carefully conducted polls.
As of today, Intrade has Obama 364 v McCain 174 Electoral votes.
Update: An anoynmous commentor asks if prediction markets aren't just "polls for technocrats". That is a good question. Prediction markets (Wikipedia) are not 100% accurate, but historical evidence shows that they are more accurate than "normal" polling. In the long run, markets are 74% closer to the actual result than polling. But they are not perfect. Being a market, financial shenanigans can and do occur - there is evidence that in the 2008 Presidential Market, a trader is using Intrade to hedge bets placed on BetFair and contracts taken on the Iowa Markets.
Oh, and I don't think that Prediction Markets are restricted to "technocrats". I would guess that the users of these markets are closer to gamblers and commodities traders.
November 03, 2008 by Brent Schneeman
Posted in General | 1 Comments »
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